Geneva Centre for the Democratic Control of Armed Forces

Geneva, Switzerland

Volume – Security Sector Governance in Southern Caucasus: Challenges and Visions

January 2004

Dr. Elkhan Nuriyev

The Southern Caucasus:

In Quest of a New Vision for Cooperative Security Strategy

Twelve years later, research scholars and policy analysts are still puzzled. The post-Soviet life of three independent states of the South Caucasus remains critically complex. Armenia, Azerbaijan, and Georgia are still in historic transition, and are no more than weak nations with fragile statehood. They still have a long way to go until they all irreversibly secure peace and stability and evolve into truly viable and democratic states. For today, however, the most difficult question is whether the three countries have their own well-defined strategic visions and resources to attain this primary goal once and forever.

The Southern Caucasus as a region is fragmented largely due to existing unresolved conflicts which prevent individually weak and small Armenia, Azerbaijan and Georgia from combining their efforts to jointly address current challenges that the region as a whole faces. The lack of unity of three countries and the absence of progress in breaking up geopolitical stalemate over conflict-torn areas create new challenges and options that actually indicate the seriousness of the upcoming crisis in Southern Caucasus.

Another major obstacle standing in the way of reaching a regional unity and stimulating cooperation is the different security perceptions among the three independent states. Although the three countries seek regional security, they all have their own foreign policy strategies and priorities. Moreover, there is a clearly defined distinction in their individual perception of threats and national security concerns.

The Southern Caucasus already needs a new vision of how it will respond to existing and future challenges in an ever-changing world. The restoration of territorial integrity, the elimination of corruption and the consolidation of democracy are absolutely necessary to keep that vision very strong. Evidently, the Southern Caucasus needs a comprehensive strategy of major change that would transform the region from an area of confrontation into an open geo-economic system where, instead of conflicting interests, there would be a mutual accommodation, or even coincidence, of those interests.

In case the three infant nations fail to succeed in dealing with security sector reform and with democratic change, they will lose much of the support they now enjoy from the international community. This in turn will result in a considerable reduction of international efforts to solve conflicts in Nagorno-Karabakh, Abkhazia, South Ossetia, a decrease in international financial and technical assistance and, eventually, loss of the importance of the role that the international community has assigned to it in the region.

The three countries should therefore devise a new agenda, which would allow them to transform themselves into a stable democracy with guaranteed sovereignty and a strong market economy. Certainly, much of the homework is to be done by Armenians, Azerbaijanis and Georgians themselves; however, the international community, and the U.S., EU and Russia in particular, should come up with their part of the new agenda as a major contributor to future success of three independent states. The new agenda should be based on the recognition that there is time, although it is very limited, and resources of political will to utilize existing competitive advantages that the region still possesses. The U.S. and EU should better coordinate their policies to respond clearly to those both inside and outside the region who do not wish to see the three countries with free and transparent societies. These forces are easily identifiable, as are those who best serve national interests of their respective countries.

Obviously, one way for the region to help foster stability and secure economic viability is through an active interaction of constructive forces which both inside and outside can work in concert to enhance cooperation between the states as well as with the regional and international organizations. The post-Soviet countries will succeed if they all three are aimed to strive to formulate a fresh comprehensive policy strategy based on a profound change, new thinking and mutual understanding through intellectual dialogue. This might be a good chance which Armenia, Azerbaijan and Georgia could use to reform their respective societies along with providing solid guarantees of security for their nations.